CITIC Securities: Aluminum Prices Seen Supported Through 2027, With $3,000/Ton Cost-Curve Floor After H2 2027

CITIC Securities said market concerns over China’s electrolytic aluminum overproduction and a ramp-up in Indonesia’s electrolytic aluminum capacity may have already been overly priced in, according to Jiemian News. The brokerage cited potential supply disruptions and signs of improving demand, and said aluminum prices remain promising in 2026 and the first half of 2027. It added that after the second half of 2027, aluminum prices should still have support from a $3,000-per-ton cost curve and incentive price level. CITIC Securities said Chinese-funded aluminum producers remain worth watching as a competitive Chinese industry.