World News: The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Already Breaking Down — Military Strikes Resume One Week After the Deal Was Signed

The fragile 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran has come under its most serious threat yet, just one week after the memorandum of understanding was signed in Geneva. US Central Command announced Friday that American aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations — calling it "a powerful response to yesterday's attack" — after a Singapore-flagged container ship was hit by an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Iran vowed to respond. What Happened: The Ever Lovely Attack and the US Retaliation On Thursday, the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely sustained damage from what the US characterized as a one-way Iranian attack drone in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said Friday that "I don't like the fact that they took a shot. They shouldn't be doing that." He described Iran as sending "at least four" one-way attack drones at ships in the strait, with one "solidly hitting the upper deck of a large and very expensive" cargo ship. Trump called the drone attack "a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement" in a social media post before CENTCOM announced the retaliatory strikes. American aircraft hit Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations — the same categories of target that have been struck in prior escalation cycles throughout the February-June conflict. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed its "naval and air forces successfully repelled the attack." Why This Threatens the Ceasefire More Than Prior Incidents The exchange is different from prior escalation episodes in one critical way: it occurred after the June 19 memorandum of understanding was formally signed, not during the negotiation process. Every prior ceasefire collapse this year — the April breakdown and the June 9 strikes that broke the second truce — happened before a formal agreement was in place. This incident tests whether a signed memorandum creates any additional deterrence, or whether the underlying conflict dynamics that produced those prior collapses are still fully operational. Trump had explicitly stated since the signing that he would resume military action against Iran if it violated the agreement's terms — which provide for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks in exchange for sanctions relief. Friday's CENTCOM strikes demonstrate he was willing to follow through. Iran's drone attack equally demonstrates that Tehran is seeking to maintain control of the waterway even under the ceasefire framework, reinforcing its repeated position that ships cannot pass Hormuz without Iranian permission. The two sides also continue to clash over provisions not yet resolved in the 60-day negotiation window — including whether Iran will impose tolls or fees on ships transiting Hormuz. Oman told European officials that vessels may ultimately face charges to use the strait, a development that would fundamentally alter the economics of the Hormuz reopening that oil markets have been pricing in since the deal was announced. The Specific Risk: How Much Will This Slow Hormuz Normalization The most consequential near-term question is how much Friday's military exchange will slow the restoration of shipping traffic through Hormuz to pre-war levels. Ships continued to transit through the narrow corridor earlier Friday despite the drone attack — suggesting commercial operators had not yet fully suspended operations. But the drone attack rattled confidence among shipowners and crews, and a handful of tankers turned around on Thursday after reportedly receiving warnings from the Iranian Navy. CENTCOM stated Friday that it would "continue to provide safe passage coordination and support to commercial vessels transiting the strait" and that the US military "remains present and vigilant to ensure all aspects of the agreement with Iran are adhered to, obeyed, and in full force and effect." The gap between that stated commitment and Iran's demonstrated willingness to strike vessels in the same week is the uncertainty that oil and risk markets must now price. What It Means for Markets, Oil, and Crypto Bitcoin has been burned twice before by collapsed ceasefires — the April breakdown and the June 9 strikes each caused BTC to give back its entire relief rally. Markets have learned from that pattern and had already been cautious about pricing in the June 19 deal fully. The Reuters poll this week showed economists expecting no Fed rate cuts through end of 2027 — a consensus partly built on the assumption that oil-driven inflation would remain elevated longer than initially hoped. Friday's exchange directly threatens the oil price decline that was the primary mechanism through which the Iran deal was supposed to ease inflation and eventually shift Fed policy. Brent crude had fallen from $92 toward $77 following the deal announcement. If Hormuz normalization stalls or reverses, that oil price decline reverses with it — keeping the inflationary pressure that has driven six consecutive weeks of Bitcoin ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed dot plot firmly in place rather than easing as the deal's disinflationary channel was expected to deliver. Washington and Tehran were able to finalize the June 19 memorandum despite trading strikes in the leadup to signing — suggesting the conflict's underlying negotiating dynamic may survive this exchange as well. But the pattern of alternating military action and diplomatic progress that has defined this conflict since February 28 is showing no signs of ending even after a formal agreement has been reached, and each escalation cycle resets the market's confidence in the deal's durability from a lower baseline.