Credit Agricole Expects Mild Month-End Demand for U.S. Dollars

Credit Agricole said its month-end pricing model indicated markets were likely to see mild U.S. dollar buying ahead of the end-of-June fixing. According to Jin10, the bank said global equities performed strongly in June and the U.S. dollar rose against major currencies over the month. After factoring in equity moves, market-cap weights, and exchange-rate performance, it said portfolio rebalancing flows at month-end were expected to generate overall mild demand for dollars, with the strongest buy signal seen in USD/SEK. The bank cautioned that market moves were not only influenced by month-end flows, as quarter-end and half-year-end flows could also play a role. It said price action could become more volatile as multiple flows overlap and complicate market signals. Credit Agricole added that this could be more evident in the final one to two days next week as the London fixing approaches, and advised investors to remain cautious if large price swings occur that appear to lack fundamental support.