UK Interest Rate Expectations See Significant Reassessment Amid US-Iran Conflict

Interest rate expectations in the UK have undergone the most significant reassessment among major G10 economies since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, according to a report by Sweden's Nordea Bank. According to Jin10, data shows that since February 27, the market's net upward adjustment for the Bank of England's interest rate expectations has reached 106 basis points. In comparison, during the same period, the US saw an increase of 78 basis points, the Eurozone 69 basis points, and Norway 70 basis points. LSEG data indicates that the UK money market has now fully priced in an expected rate hike of 48 basis points in 2026. Before the US-Iran conflict, the market scenario anticipated at least two rate cuts within the year.