Citic Securities has indicated that the likelihood of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran is increasing, with the market largely pricing this as the baseline scenario. According to Odaily, the most significant change following an agreement would be the simultaneous recovery of supply and demand, along with a rapid improvement in economic activity. Currently, some economic indicators are notably weak, reflecting delayed demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This delay is considered an abnormal disturbance, as entities are waiting rather than rushing to restock and resume operations. Once the agreement is reached and the strait reopens, supply and demand are expected to stabilize, leading to a noticeable improvement in economic activity after June. Changes in macroeconomic variables will also alter the market strategy environment, gradually balancing investment styles.
The reduction of large-scale holdings is nearing its end, and as macroeconomic stability returns, allocation funds are expected to gradually come back, aiding the recovery of some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, the strategy continues to actively reduce volatility and reconstruct a barbell structure of AI and energy sectors.
Anais