Global Central Banks Unlikely to Pursue Aggressive Tightening, TsLombard Says

TsLombard has indicated that a highly aggressive tightening cycle is unlikely to occur. According to Jin10, the impact of oil price shocks may lead to limited policy tightening by global central banks. In Europe, the energy shock is already hindering economic activity. The UK labor market has been unstable for some time, and hiring sentiment across Europe is increasingly weakening. TsLombard believes that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will tighten less than market expectations this year, a possibility that is currently underestimated. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement policy tightening in the short term, and if it does, it is almost certain to wait until 2027.