IEA Warns of Severe Oil Supply Shortage Until Q3 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that global oil markets will remain severely undersupplied through the end of the third quarter of 2026, even if the US-Iran conflict ends by early June. According to BeInCrypto, the IEA's latest report highlights a significant drop in global oil supply by 12.8 million barrels per day since the conflict began, with output from Strait of Hormuz countries down 14.4 million barrels per day from pre-war levels. The agency projects a 1.78 million bpd shortfall in 2026, reversing previous surplus estimates. A cumulative oil liquids deficit of 900 million barrels is expected by September 2026, despite a coordinated release of 400 million barrels. Demand is projected to decline by 420,000 bpd this year, exacerbating the supply shortfall.