Economist David Rosenberg: Canadian Labor Market Weakness Signals No Rate Hike

Economist David Rosenberg has stated that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise policy rates amid a weakening labor market. According to Jin10, Rosenberg highlighted that if not for the oil price shock caused by the U.S.-Iran war, the Bank of Canada would have already begun discussions on restarting the rate-cut cycle. His analysis of Canada's April employment data shows a net decrease of 112,000 jobs in the first four months of 2026. However, he also noted that fixed income market traders are pricing in at least two rate hikes by the Bank of Canada before the end of 2026. Rosenberg believes that the Canadian labor market is continuously losing momentum, while the disinflationary resource gap is widening, indicating further weakening of inflationary pressures in the economy.