U.S. Public Debt Surpasses GDP, Impacts Bitcoin Scarcity Thesis

U.S. public debt reached $31.27 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, slightly exceeding the trailing 12-month nominal GDP of $31.22 trillion, according to CRFB. This results in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100.2%, providing a new fiscal reference point for Bitcoin's scarcity thesis. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis notes that this figure is an advance estimate and may be subject to change.