Military Market Bets Yield High Returns on Polymarket

According to NS3.AI, a recent analysis by ACDC of over 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts, totaling $54.4 billion in cumulative volume, revealed that low-probability bets in military and defense markets have been winning at unusually high rates. Typically, longshot bets in political markets succeed about 14% of the time, but military-linked contracts have exceeded 50% in some instances. A case study from June 2025 highlighted U.S. strikes on Iran, where 19 longshot bets placed before the June 21 strike resulted in approximately $1.8 million in profits across eight wallets.