UK Inflation Concerns Persist Amid Political Speculation

On April 30, Jin10 reported that David Rees, Global Head of Economics at Schroders, stated that the Bank of England has maintained its interest rates, with its hawkish stance unchanged. According to Jin10, the overall inflation rate has risen to 3.3%, while wage growth has only gradually slowed, and inflation in the service sector remains persistent. There is a risk that this shock could become more prolonged. If energy shortages translate into food price pressures, there is a second-round risk later this year. Rising fuel and shipping costs, along with renewed pressure on inputs like fertilizers, may gradually increase grocery inflation. The risk of sustained high inflation, coupled with political changes speculated after local elections, has pushed UK government bond yields to nearly a 20-year high. Nevertheless, the threshold for raising interest rates remains high. Given some slack in the labor market and the possibility of weakened growth if supply disruptions persist, it is doubtful that the Bank of England will tighten policy unless economic activity remains strong enough to absorb the impact of rate hikes.