Bitcoin Faces Resistance Amid Downward Trend

Bitcoin's price is currently facing resistance due to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) model, which indicates significant selling pressure when the price approaches the short-term cost average. According to PANews, this often marks the beginning of a major downward trend. As the trend progresses, Bitcoin's price may deviate significantly from the STH-RP, making rebounds less likely. The current situation shows Bitcoin at the second stage of resistance, where it is blocked by the green line, and both the red and green lines continue to decline. If Bitcoin fails to break through the green line, the probability of further downward movement increases. As of yesterday, the green line was positioned at $72,000. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's movement in March resembles its behavior in January, with similar downward pressure and false breakouts on the daily chart. In January, Bitcoin struggled to surpass $90,586 and eventually moved downward. Similarly, in March, it failed to maintain above $70,996 and dropped to $65,548. The likelihood of continued downward movement is greater than upward movement, aligning with the STH-RP risk model analysis. For traders, it is advised to avoid impulsive actions if uncertain, as this could lead to mistakes. For short-term trading, a strategy could involve opening a short position if Bitcoin rebounds near $70,996, while allowing room for potential false breakouts. A stop-loss should be set if Bitcoin breaks above $72,000. For long-term positions, traders might consider gradually building positions after entering the third stage of the STH-RP risk model, continuing until the fifth stage. This approach aims to secure purchases within the relative bottom range of the bear market, ensuring controlled costs and higher certainty.