Strategy's MSTR Stock Poised for Significant Rally Despite Q1 Loss
Strategy's MSTR stock is showing potential for a substantial rally, possibly exceeding 80% in the coming months, despite reporting a $12.54 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026. According to Cointelegraph, the stock is forming an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting a move toward the $350 level. This technical setup indicates a bullish reversal, with MSTR trading within an ascending triangle, characterized by higher lows beneath a flat resistance zone. These higher lows suggest increasing buyer confidence, as each pullback ends sooner than before, indicating early buyer intervention.
The ascending triangle pattern typically resolves when the price breaks above the upper trend line, potentially rising by the structure's maximum height. Applying this rule to MSTR's chart suggests an upside target of around $350 in 2026, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line. Analyst Kevin Fx has also noted the possibility of MSTR rallying to the $250–$300 range, citing an inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern. However, a pullback from the ascending triangle's upper trendline could lead to a multi-week downtrend toward the lower trend line at approximately $150, with a breakdown below this level risking the invalidation of bullish setups.
In a related development, Canaccord, a prominent Canadian investment bank, has raised its MSTR price target to $224 from $185, maintaining its Buy rating. The bank highlighted MSTR's 80% rebound since February, attributing it to Bitcoin's recovery from near $60,000 lows to above $80,000. Canaccord also emphasized Strategy's preferred-share financing model, such as STRC, as a key factor in its resilience. This model allows the company to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases without heavily relying on new common-stock issuance, which can dilute existing shareholders. Instead, preferred stock provides an alternative funding method for Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, reducing pressure on its core equity.
Despite the significant Q1 loss, Strategy has increased its Bitcoin exposure, purchasing 89,599 BTC in the first three months of 2026, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537. The company's BTC-per-share metric also rose 18% year-over-year, indicating added value to each MSTR share alongside the growth of its Bitcoin balance sheet.
